A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
