President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.
Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist
Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.
Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this coming weekend.
Defense Assurances and International Support
“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.
Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”
They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.
Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute
On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”
The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.
American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.
“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.
Path Forward and Possible Scenarios
It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.
“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.
“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.
